Observed collector data
What Purchase Ratio do collectors report before a first Birkin or Kelly?
As of September 30, 2026, across 174 first-person offer reports, the median Purchase Ratio is 1.50:1, half of them between 1.00:1 and 2.00:1; for the 84 confirmed first Quota Bag offers it is 1.55:1. Recent public collector reports reviewed by MyQuotaBag often fall around 1.00:1 to 2.50:1, but lower and higher outcomes exist.
Status: active · Confidence: medium high · Sample: moderate · Reviewed on 2026-10-03 · Updated on 2026-10-03
MyQuotaBag is an independent app and is not affiliated with Hermès International or any of its affiliates. This page summarizes public reports from collectors and publishers. It is not verified fact and states no Hermès rule. Each boutique and country works differently and practices change. These are general observations shared without commitment. We do not claim that pre-spend exists or that any amount is required. Collectors describe bags going to established clients who buy over time, come back and build a relationship with their boutique. No outcome, offer or allocation is predicted or guaranteed.
The longer answer
Is reported pre-spend changing? Not clearly: in the reports MyQuotaBag holds with a date, the Purchase Ratio seems to rise from year to year but not from one six-month window to the next, on samples too small to confirm a trend. The central half of the reports sits between the 25th and 75th percentiles above; the wider 1.00:1 to 2.50:1 band is where most reports fall. Sub-1.00:1 offers are documented; high-ratio journeys can still fail. These are observed public reports, not an Hermès threshold.
The numbers and how many reports they come from
First-person public reports of an offer, each filed individually in the MyQuotaBag dataset, with one Purchase Ratio that counts.
- Reports in the sample
- 174
- Median
- 1.50:1
- 25th percentile
- 1.00:1
- 75th percentile
- 2.00:1
First Quota Bag offers only. 84 of these reports say the offer was a first Quota Bag: median 1.55:1, half of them between 1.00:1 and 2.00:1. 25 were a later Quota Bag and 65 do not say.
| Reported Purchase Ratio | Reports |
|---|---|
| under 0.50:1 | 8 |
| 0.50:1 to 0.99:1 | 8 |
| 1.00:1 to 1.49:1 | 67 |
| 1.50:1 to 1.99:1 | 31 |
| 2.00:1 to 2.49:1 | 34 |
| 2.50:1 to 3.00:1 | 21 |
| above 3.00:1 | 5 |
How solid is this number. MyQuotaBag holds every report behind this statistic and recomputes it on every update, so this is a measured figure, not a reported one. Known bias in the sample: self selected public reports. This is what collectors published about themselves, not a threshold set by Hermès. These reports come from collectors who were offered a bag. They say nothing about collectors who are still waiting, so a ratio cannot be read as a probability.
Ranges people report
- 1.00:1 to 2.50:1: descriptive band for many recent North American first quota bag narratives. This is a descriptive band, not a threshold. Confidence: medium high.
What MyQuotaBag observed
Recent public collector reports frequently place many quota-bag journeys around roughly 1.00:1 to 2.50:1, especially in North America.
Offers below 1.00:1 occur in public collector reports and should not be described as impossible.
High ratios do not guarantee the requested bag; reports include 3.00:1 to 4.00:1 without an offer or desired configuration.
Continuity with a sales associate and management awareness recur frequently in successful-journey narratives.
Dated Purchase Ratio reports show no change MyQuotaBag can confirm: the median rises when they are grouped by calendar year and does not when they are grouped by six-month window, on small samples.
Exceptions that are documented
- Sub-1.00:1 offers exist in public reports.
- Very low incremental spend appears in established multi quota bag journeys.
- 3.00:1 to 4.00:1 with no offer or no desired offer is reported.
- Immediate/first-visit allocation exceptions appear in travel/Asia narratives.
What Hermès officially says
No public Hermès numeric pre-spend threshold or formula was identified in the reviewed materials.
Where and when this was observed
- Geography
- Primarily North America
- Period covered
- 2024-01 to 2026-09
- Research pack
- MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09
- Computed on
- 2026-10-03
- Reviewed on
- 2026-10-03
Sources reviewed for this topic
- Hermes Prespend Guide: What Actually Counts (2026)
- Hermes Quota Bag System Explained (2026)
- Birkin Buyer Confessions, Part I
- Birkin Buyer Confessions, Part II
Plus 2 public collector discussions on Reddit and PurseForum, paraphrased and counted in the figures. No usernames or personal details are published.
How this page was built
Every line above comes from a dated record in the MyQuotaBag research dataset and each record keeps a link down to the source it came from. Weak evidence is kept in the lower layers instead of being deleted and it is never moved up into a stronger claim without a source behind it.
Read the full method · Machine-readable version of this page
How to cite
MyQuotaBag Data, “What Purchase Ratio do collectors report before a first Birkin or Kelly?”, dataset version 2026.10.1, 174 first-person reports, reviewed on 2026-10-03. https://myquotabag.com/myquotabag-data/quota-bag-ratio/. The research behind the MyQuotaBag app for iPhone and iPad.
Community insights currently come from public research and community reports, not private MyQuotaBag user data. Any future use of user data will be anonymized, aggregated and controlled through the app's privacy settings. How this data is built