{
  "dataset_version": "2026.10.1",
  "topic_id": "quota_ratio_general",
  "question": "What Purchase Ratio do collectors report before a first Birkin or Kelly?",
  "asked_as": [
    "Are reported pre-spend ratios changing?"
  ],
  "status": "active",
  "lead_answer": "As of September 30, 2026, across 174 first-person offer reports, the median Purchase Ratio is 1.50:1, half of them between 1.00:1 and 2.00:1; for the 84 confirmed first Quota Bag offers it is 1.55:1.",
  "short_answer": "Recent public collector reports reviewed by MyQuotaBag often fall around 1.00:1 to 2.50:1, but lower and higher outcomes exist.",
  "detailed_answer": "Is reported pre-spend changing? Not clearly: in the reports MyQuotaBag holds with a date, the Purchase Ratio seems to rise from year to year but not from one six-month window to the next, on samples too small to confirm a trend. The central half of the reports sits between the 25th and 75th percentiles above; the wider 1.00:1 to 2.50:1 band is where most reports fall. Sub-1.00:1 offers are documented; high-ratio journeys can still fail. These are observed public reports, not an Hermès threshold.",
  "confidence": "medium_high",
  "sample_strength": "moderate",
  "geography": "Primarily North America",
  "period": {
    "from": "2024-01",
    "to": "2026-09"
  },
  "last_reviewed": "2026-10-03",
  "observations": [
    {
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09",
      "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-002",
      "topic_id": "north_america_ratio_band",
      "statement": "Recent public collector reports frequently place many quota-bag journeys around roughly 1.0x–2.5x, especially in North America.",
      "evidence_layers": [
        "RP001-A",
        "RP001-B",
        "RP001-C"
      ],
      "frequency": "commonly_observed",
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "sample_strength": "moderate",
      "causal_strength": "unproven",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09",
      "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-003",
      "topic_id": "sub_1x_offers",
      "statement": "Offers below 1.0x occur in public collector reports and should not be described as impossible.",
      "evidence_layers": [
        "RP001-A",
        "RP001-B",
        "RP001-C"
      ],
      "frequency": "occasionally_observed",
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "sample_strength": "moderate",
      "causal_strength": "not_applicable",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09",
      "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-004",
      "topic_id": "high_ratio_no_guarantee",
      "statement": "High ratios do not guarantee the requested bag; reports include 3x–4x without an offer or desired configuration.",
      "evidence_layers": [
        "RP001-A",
        "RP001-B",
        "RP001-C"
      ],
      "frequency": "rare_report",
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "sample_strength": "moderate",
      "causal_strength": "not_applicable",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09",
      "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-011",
      "topic_id": "sa_relationship",
      "statement": "Continuity with a sales associate and management awareness recur frequently in successful-journey narratives.",
      "evidence_layers": [
        "RP001-A",
        "RP001-B",
        "RP001-C"
      ],
      "frequency": "frequently_observed",
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "sample_strength": "moderate",
      "causal_strength": "unproven",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP019-PERCEPTION-VS-DATA-2026-09",
      "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-016",
      "topic_id": "ratio_trend",
      "statement": "Dated Purchase Ratio reports show no change MyQuotaBag can confirm: the median rises when they are grouped by calendar year and does not when they are grouped by six-month window, on small samples.",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "RP019-A-CHECK-002",
        "RP019-A-CHECK-004",
        "RP019-A-CHECK-005"
      ],
      "data_as_of": "2026-09-10",
      "frequency": null,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sample_strength": "limited",
      "causal_strength": "not_applicable",
      "status": "active"
    }
  ],
  "benchmarks": [
    {
      "benchmark_id": "MQB-BENCH-OFFER-RATIO-MEASURED",
      "metric": "prespend_ratio",
      "population_definition": "first-person public reports of an offer, each filed individually in the MyQuotaBag dataset, with one Purchase Ratio that counts",
      "research_pack_id": "MQB-DATASET-CANONICAL",
      "sample": {
        "n": 174
      },
      "statistics": {
        "median": 1.5,
        "p25": 1,
        "p75": 2,
        "minimum": 0,
        "maximum": 9
      },
      "quantile_method": "linear interpolation between closest ranks (Excel PERCENTILE.INC)",
      "distribution": {
        "lt_0_5": 8,
        "0_5_to_1_0": 8,
        "1_0_to_1_5": 67,
        "1_5_to_2_0": 31,
        "2_0_to_2_5": 34,
        "2_5_to_3_0": 21,
        "gt_3_0": 5
      },
      "ratio_sources": {
        "declared": 163,
        "recalculated": 11
      },
      "subgroups": {
        "first_quota_bag": {
          "n": 84,
          "median": 1.55,
          "p25": 1,
          "p75": 2
        },
        "later_quota_bag": {
          "n": 25
        },
        "rank_unknown": {
          "n": 65
        },
        "by_model": {
          "Birkin 25": {
            "n": 33,
            "median": 1.3,
            "p25": 1,
            "p75": 2
          },
          "Birkin 30": {
            "n": 27,
            "median": 1.25,
            "p25": 1,
            "p75": 2
          },
          "Kelly 25": {
            "n": 23,
            "median": 1.5,
            "p25": 1.1,
            "p75": 2
          },
          "Mini Kelly": {
            "n": 9,
            "minimum": 1.5,
            "maximum": 3
          },
          "Birkin 35": {
            "n": 5,
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 1.84
          },
          "Shoulder Birkin": {
            "n": 4,
            "minimum": 0,
            "maximum": 2
          },
          "Kelly 28": {
            "n": 3,
            "minimum": 1.2,
            "maximum": 1.35
          },
          "Constance": {
            "n": 2
          }
        },
        "wait_months_first_offer": {
          "n": 67,
          "median": 6,
          "p25": 4,
          "p75": 10
        },
        "no_offer_yet": {
          "n": 28,
          "note": "collectors still waiting at the date of their report; counted, never part of the median"
        }
      },
      "sample_bias": [
        "self_selected_public_reports"
      ],
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "sample_strength": "moderate",
      "traceability": "row-level; every report is kept in the MyQuotaBag research dataset and the figure is recomputed from those rows on every update",
      "reproducibility": "reproducible internally: recomputed on every build from the rows MyQuotaBag holds; the rows stay private to protect the people behind them",
      "production_use": "Primary Purchase Ratio benchmark. Cite with its n."
    }
  ],
  "observed_ranges": [
    {
      "range_id": "MQB-RANGE-NA-QB-2026-09",
      "topic_id": "north_america_ratio_band",
      "range": {
        "min": 1,
        "max": 2.5,
        "unit": "x target bag retail"
      },
      "meaning": "descriptive band for many recent North American first-QB narratives",
      "confidence": "medium_high",
      "not_a_threshold": true
    }
  ],
  "exceptions": [
    {
      "exception_id": "MQB-EXC-001",
      "topic": "sub_1x_offer",
      "statement": "Sub-1x offers exist in public reports."
    },
    {
      "exception_id": "MQB-EXC-002",
      "topic": "very_low_incremental_repeat",
      "statement": "Very low incremental spend appears in established multi-QB journeys."
    },
    {
      "exception_id": "MQB-EXC-003",
      "topic": "high_ratio_failure",
      "statement": "3x–4x with no offer or no desired offer is reported."
    },
    {
      "exception_id": "MQB-EXC-004",
      "topic": "immediate_or_first_visit",
      "statement": "Immediate/first-visit allocation exceptions appear in travel/Asia narratives."
    }
  ],
  "contradictions": [],
  "research_gaps": [],
  "official_position": {
    "research_pack_id": "MQB-RP001-QUOTA-RATIO-2026-09",
    "observation_id": "MQB-OBS-001",
    "topic_id": "official_numeric_ratio_threshold",
    "statement": "No public Hermès numeric pre-spend threshold or formula was identified in the reviewed materials.",
    "evidence_layers": [
      "RP001-A",
      "RP001-B",
      "RP001-C"
    ],
    "frequency": null,
    "confidence": "high",
    "sample_strength": "not_applicable",
    "causal_strength": "not_applicable",
    "status": "active",
    "note": "Based on the materials reviewed."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000001",
      "normalized_url": "surgeofstyle.com/hermes-pre-spend",
      "url": "https://www.surgeofstyle.com/hermes-pre-spend/",
      "platform": "specialist_blog",
      "title": "Hermes Prespend Guide: What Actually Counts (2026)",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-15",
      "source_quality": "B",
      "geography": "unknown",
      "access": "full",
      "evidence_type": "first_person_report",
      "discovery_passes": [
        "RP001-A-STRICT-WEB"
      ],
      "pass_source_ids": [
        "RP001-A-SRC-001"
      ],
      "independent_discovery_count": 1
    },
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000005",
      "normalized_url": "baguseek.com/hermes-quota-bag-system-guide",
      "url": "https://baguseek.com/hermes-quota-bag-system-guide",
      "platform": "specialist_blog",
      "title": "Hermes Quota Bag System Explained (2026)",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-02",
      "source_quality": "B",
      "geography": "US, Japan, France",
      "access": "snippet_only",
      "evidence_type": "specialist_reporting",
      "discovery_passes": [
        "RP001-A-STRICT-WEB"
      ],
      "pass_source_ids": [
        "RP001-A-SRC-005"
      ],
      "independent_discovery_count": 1
    },
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000007",
      "normalized_url": "amyodell.substack.com/p/birkin-buyer-confessions-part-i",
      "url": "https://amyodell.substack.com/p/birkin-buyer-confessions-part-i",
      "platform": "newsletter_journalism",
      "title": "Birkin Buyer Confessions, Part I",
      "publication_date": "2025-01-16",
      "source_quality": "B",
      "geography": "US, Dubai",
      "access": "ACCESS_LIMITED_PAYWALL",
      "evidence_type": "first_person_report",
      "discovery_passes": [
        "RP001-A-STRICT-WEB"
      ],
      "pass_source_ids": [
        "RP001-A-SRC-007"
      ],
      "independent_discovery_count": 1
    },
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000008",
      "normalized_url": "amyodell.substack.com/p/birkin-buyer-confessions-part-ii",
      "url": "https://amyodell.substack.com/p/birkin-buyer-confessions-part-ii",
      "platform": "newsletter_journalism",
      "title": "Birkin Buyer Confessions, Part II",
      "publication_date": "2025-01-23",
      "source_quality": "B",
      "geography": "US, Spain",
      "access": "ACCESS_LIMITED_PAYWALL",
      "evidence_type": "first_person_report",
      "discovery_passes": [
        "RP001-A-STRICT-WEB"
      ],
      "pass_source_ids": [
        "RP001-A-SRC-008"
      ],
      "independent_discovery_count": 1
    },
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000018",
      "platform": "public collector discussion",
      "url": null,
      "title": null,
      "publication_date": null,
      "source_quality": "C",
      "access": "ACCESS_LIMITED",
      "evidence_type": "first_person_report"
    },
    {
      "canonical_source_id": "CANON-SRC-000019",
      "platform": "public collector discussion",
      "url": null,
      "title": null,
      "publication_date": null,
      "source_quality": "C",
      "access": "ACCESS_LIMITED",
      "evidence_type": "first_person_report"
    }
  ],
  "html_url": "https://myquotabag.com/myquotabag-data/quota-bag-ratio/"
}